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‘Powell recession’ looms as indicator shows near-100% odds of downturn
- The NY Fed’s Recession Probability model is flashing alarms for an incoming downturn, with odds at 38%.
- But given how reliable the indicator is, that’s really a near-100% chance of a recession, according to DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas.
- “It is clearly saying high short term interest rates are going to cause a recession in the next 12 months. Moreover, these odds are very likely to increase,” Colas warned.
The New York Fed’s Recession Probability model is indicating that a “Powell recession” in 2023 is almost a certainty, according to the research firm DataTrek.
The model measures the difference between yields on the 3-month and 10-year Treasury – similar to the 2-10 Treasury curve, which is a notorious bellwether of a recession when the curve is inverted.
Analysts have called the 3-10 Treasury curve a “more accurate” predictor, and Federal Reserve Chai……more here
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