With stocks recovering all 2020 losses, one would think that the economy is firing on all cylinders. Unfortunately, based on the message just sent out by the Fed, nothing could be further from the truth.
While the market still waits for the Fed to officially start making loans on its Main Street Lending Program, today at 330pm, the Fed announced that it expanded the eligibility criteria for this facility “to allow more small and medium-sized businesses to be able to receive support.” The facility will be open for eligible lenders “soon,” while the burden on banks that create the loans would be lessened.
Changes to the eligibility criteria include:
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In short: America’s small businesses – and we mean really small business, those which desperately need as little as 250K to survive yet can’t find willing bank lenders – are in such dire shape that only the Fed has the willingness to step in and bail them out as banks refuse to take on the credit risk.
To juice bank interest in participating, going forward they will be required to hold only 5% of the loans on their balance sheet for all three facilities, far less than the 15% they had to hold previously.
“Supporting small and mid-sized businesses so they are ready to reopen and rehire workers will help foster a broad-based economic recovery,” Powell said in the statement explaining the expansion. “I am confident the changes we are making will improve the ability of the Main Street Lending Program to support employment during this difficult period.”
And here is the Fed again confusing solvency with liquidity, and assuming that just because business incur billions more in debt they will somehow become more viable or retain workers. Unfortunately, as we discussed on Friday, this simply won’t happen because whereas US corporations have already issued over $1.1 trillion in IG debt, the bulk of its has been retainer (or is being used to fund dividends and buybacks), even as millions of workers are being let go.
The Fed also unveiled that The Main Street program will be open for lender registration soon, and the central bank will start buying loans “shortly afterward.” The three facilities are backed by a $75 billion investment from the Treasury Department that’s part of the $454 billion allocated by Congress in the CARES Act for the Fed’s emergency-lending programs during the coronavirus pandemic. Expect the entire investment to be wiped out over the next few years as all the companies that take out the Fed-guaranteed loans file for bankruptcy anyway.
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