Expect more shocking economic data in the week ahead with the unemployment rate set to near 20%(with real numbers higher)

 POINTS

• The stock market’s internal rotation into beaten down names, like airlines and small caps, is expected to continue to be a theme in the week ahead as the economy continues to reopen.
• Rising tensions between Washington and Beijing could become an increasing headwind for stocks, particularly the technology sector, which is most exposed on a revenue basis and through its supply chain. 
• The May employment report is released Friday and it is expected to show that unemployment has edged up to about 20%.

A family wearing masks passes the New York Stock Exchange, Tuesday, May 26, 2020.Mark Lennihan | AP

The big rotation into unloved stocks, like banks, small caps and airlines, took a break Friday, but it could be a theme that dominates trading again in the week ahead.

Investors will be assessing the progress of economic reopenings against some new headwinds for the market.

The stock market has been mostly discounting unprecedented weakness in economic data, but the May employment report will still be of major interest Friday. Economists expect it to show another shocking loss of jobs, this time roughly 8.5 million after the 20.5 million lost in April. The unemployment rate is expected to jump to a staggering 19.8% from 14.7% in April, according to Refinitiv.

Increasingly frayed relations between the U.S. and China reared up at the end of the week as a negative force for markets, and analysts expect that stress to continue to be a concern. The U.S. joined with other nations to condemn China’s new security rules for Hong Kong, which Beijing sees as an attempt to quell protesters. 

President Donald Trump on Friday said the U.S. would end its preferential relationship with Hong Kong and also exit agreements with the World Health Organization, which he said failed with China to protect the world from the spread of coronavirus. The stock market moved higher after Trump’s afternoon announcement on relief there were no new trade actions against China……..more here

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