China’s Submarine Lead In Asia Could Grow By 2030

H I Sutton ContributorAerospace & Defense

I cover the changing world of underwater warfare.

Submarines are the hot asset among Asian countries right now, with ~239 in service with the region’s navies. Almost every navy is acquiring new types. If we look ahead 10 years the submarine landscape in the region will be very different. And by 2030 China could have more than twice as many as any other other Asian country.

The total number of submarines will likely drop to around 220. More on why later. But this headline drop in numbers hides the greater trend which is one of expansion and modernization of submarine forces.

China has the largest submarine fleet in the world. I project a small increase from ~75 to 79 boats. Within this expect new classes of ballistic missile submarines, attack submarines and conventional submarines. There is also a small but growing fleet of ‘oddball’ types, including the enigmatic ‘sailless’ design.Today In: Aerospace & Defense

India is renewing its fleet and also adding new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. These put it in an elite club among world navies. In overall capability terms it is ahead of all other navies in Asia except China. Also before 2030, it’s just possible that the first indigenous nuclear-powered attack submarine could be in the water. The new SSBNs increase the count by 4 hulls, while other new submarines will likely replace existing boats on a 1:1 basis.

South Korea has a strong navy including a sizable fleet of conventional submarines. The first of 9 indigenous Dosan Ahn Changho class submarine was launched in 2018. This will likely increase overall submarine strength by 2030, overtaking Japan. These are the first conventional submarine in the world with a vertical launch system (VLS) for cruise missiles……more here

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