The folly of trying to curb China’s rise

By KEN MOAK

ttempts to curb China’s rise did not begin with Donald Trump, nor are they likely end with his administration as long as the “communist” nation is in a position to challenge US economic, technological and military hegemony. Perhaps because so much at stake for the US, no administration or Congress will allow any nation to acquire that position. It was the Soviet Union at the end of World War II, Japan in the 1980s, and now it is China. Who knows which nation will be targeted in the future?

Former president Barack Obama initiated the “pivot to Asia” policy, planning to place 60% of US military assets in the Asia-Pacific region, the purpose of which was to bottle China inside the “first island chain.” Shortly afterward, he secured the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the purpose of which was to keep China from “writing the world’s trade rules.” Neither Obama policy succeeded in containing China. The opposite, in fact, might be true in that China seems to be able to push back US intrusion and might have grown stronger in light of its economic, technological and military achievements.

Though annual growth has slowed to around 6%, largely because of falling external demand due to Trump’s trade wars, the Chinese economy has still fared better than any other major country’s this year. India’s GDP growth has fallen particularly hard, from more than 7% to around 5%, according to World Bank figures. The Bank expects the US, European Union and Japanese economies to grow by around 2% or lower in the coming years if the US-China trade spat does not end soon.

Furthermore, an increasing number of countries, including staunch US allies such as the UK, are embracing China by participating in its Belt and Road Initiative and defying American pressure not to use Chinese telecom products in their 5G (fifth-generation technology) rollouts.

On the military front, China displayed an impressive array of advanced conventional and nuclear weapons at its 70th-anniversary parade in October. Though they might not be as lethal or advanced as those in the US arsenal, America and its allies could suffer unthinkable losses of human lives and property should US politicians push the two countries into a war.

Trump has signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law, perhaps betting that China will do nothing or might even capitulate to the Hong Kong protesters’ demands

And there is no end in sight to Washington’s anti-China policy. Trump has signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law, perhaps betting that China will do nothing or might even capitulate to the Hong Kong protesters’ demands. But if the US follows through with the threats outlined in the legislation, the Chinese government will most likely institute tit-for-tat countermeasures, because the Chinese public would not only support it but demand it.

But there is an irony to the US policies in that they hurt American businesses and the people of Hong Kong more than China. The many US businesses in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) are already hurting their future in doubt because of the prolonged period of violent protests. The US legislation will only embolden the protesters to become more violent, a stance that the mainland would not likely allow for long. Should Beijing intervene, Hong Kong will be on the edge of an abyss, wiping out the future of its youth and destroying US business prospects.

China, on the other hand, would suffer Western condemnation and possibly sanctions, but as with the Tiananmen Square incident, it will not only recover but might even emerge stronger, simply because the protests and the US legislation in reality have nothing to do with democracy or human rights. What’s more, Western businesses would not likely give up the increasingly lucrative Chinese market.

It could indeed be argued that the US might be shooting itself in the foot, risking its own economy and dragging the world down with it…..more here

Click here for reuse options!
Copyright 2019 Hiram's 1555 Blog