A 52-mile fault running through a region of San Francisco Bay populated by more than 7 million people is lying in wait like a ‘tectonic time bomb,’ experts warn.
An unsettling new study led by the US Geological Survey has examined the devastation that would ensue if a magnitude 7.0 earthquake were to occur along the Hayward fault.
While the San Andreas fault may be better known, USGS warns Hayward ‘is among the most active and dangerous in the United States.’
In the scenario, they found that the hypothetical quake would cause roughly 800 deaths in the region, and an additional 18,000 injuries – and, nearly 25,000 trapped people would have to be rescued from collapsed buildings and stalled elevators.
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According to the analysis, several East Bay cities would be hit by ‘violent ground shaking’ if the epicentre of the M7.0 earthquake were beneath Oakland. In Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro, and Hayward, the ground could suddenly move as much as 6 feet
The terrifying estimates come from the USGS’s ‘HayWired earthquake scenario,’ which was conducted in effort to help cities better prepare for a real disaster.
Over the last 1,900 years, Hayward produced ‘major prehistoric earthquakes’ roughly every 100-220 years, with the 12 most recent major quakes occurring at intervals of about 150 years, with some variation, according to USGS.
And, the last was a magnitude 6.8 quake in 1868.
Given its history, experts say another huge event could essentially happen at any time.
‘The fault is what we sort of call a tectonic time bomb,’ USGS earthquake geologist emeritus David Schwartz told the LA Times.
‘It’s just waiting to go off.’
According to the analysis, several East Bay cities would be hit by ‘violent ground shaking’ if the epicenter of the M7.0 earthquake were beneath Oakland.
In Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro, and Hayward, the ground could suddenly move as much as 6 feet as the opposite sides of the fault shift.
The entire Bay Area would feel strong shaking, and sandy soils would be come liquid-like.
According to USGS, aftershocks could continue to spring up for years after the fact, potentially bringing a magnitude 6.4 in Santa Clara County, near San Jose.
The aerial image shows the path of the Hayward Fault (red lines) as it cuts through major urban areas in the East Bay. The main football stadium at Univ. of California, Berkeley, for example,(oval in center of image), is nearly cut in half by the fault
The property damage would hit more than $82 billion, the experts say, destroying about 77,000 -152,000 households and displacing roughly 411,000 people.
Water distribution in the area would be disrupted as well, causing residents to lose water service for anywhere from 6 weeks to 6 months.
And, the quake could spark hundreds of gas- and electric-related fires.
Hundreds would be killed as a result of the mainshock, and there would be roughly 18,000 nonfatal injuries.
While the scenario is worrying, the researchers say preparation could dramatically reduce these numbers.
A 52-mile fault running through a region of San Francisco Bay populated by more than 7 million people is lying in wait like a ‘tectonic time bomb.’ While the San Andreas fault may be better known, USGS warns Hayward ‘is among the most active and dangerous in the United States’
With early warning systems such as the recently tested ShakeAlert, and the use of the ‘Drop, Cover, and Hold On’ tactic, USGS says as many as 1,500 injuries could be prevented.
The new report, the experts say, can help both the state and residents prepare for disaster before one strikes.
‘The HayWired report provides a thorough, comprehensive analysis of the potential impact of a large-scale earthquake in the Bay Area,’ said Ryan Arba, from the Earthquake and Tsunami Program within the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services.
‘The State of California and its local partners have been preparing for decades; however, there is always more that we can do.’…….More Here
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