When Macy’s announced earlier this month its plan to close 100 stores, or 14% of its 728-unit fleet, consumers panicked, investors cheered and analysts gave a slow clap. In the age of omnichannel shopping, almost all retailers are rethinking their brick-and-mortar strategy by trimming stores and allocating more assets to e-commerce.

Since Macy’s is keeping mum on which stores will get the axe next year—a spokesman said the department store chain will publish its list once decisions are made and the company has no comment until then—some firms are researching the issue themselves. 1010data, a data analytics company, recently analyzed consumer behavior and market share to develop its own list of the top 10 likely store closures.

The Midwest-heavy list includes Milwaukee, Wisc., where 1010data found Macy’s has lost 14% of its market share between 2014 and 2015 to retail rivals; Pittsburgh, Penn., where Macy’s has lost 12% of share; Hartford, Conn., where the brand lost 9.4% share; Philadelphia, Penn., where it lost 9.1%; and Detroit, Mich., where it lost 8.2%. Stores in Cincinnati, Ohio; Daytona Beach, Fla.; St. Louis, Mo.; and Columbus and Cleveland, Ohio round out the list.

1010data partners with a variety of data providers offering information about shopper purchases and habits. The firm gathers data on debit and credit card transactions, receipts from mobile and online purchases sent via email, and clickstream data showing the digital steps shoppers take before purchase. Debit and credit card data was the key to analyzing the health of particular Macy’s stores, said Samir Bhavnani, area VP-consumer insights at 1010data…CONTINUE READING