The US is Taking the New Cold War directly to Russia’s Doorstep. The Intermarium and the Central Balkans

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The US is Taking the New Cold War directly to Russia’s Doorstep. The Intermarium and the Central Balkans

EU Geopolitics and the US-Assisted Rise of the Intermarium: Part II

By Andrew Korybko
Global Research
Balkans: Staging Ground For NATO’s Post-Cold War Order
(Please read Part I before this article)

The Central Balkans

Description:

This bloc of interests is still taking shape, but unlike the others that have been mentioned, it’s actually opposed to the Intermarum’s geopolitical dictates and can be understood as being the multipolar world’s frontline defense organization. The Central Balkans are geographically centered on Serbia but also include Republika Srpska, Macedonia, and possibly even Montenegro in the cultural-political sense if the citizens of Podgorica succeed in keeping their country out of NATO. The grouping of states might not have ‘naturally’ begun to form had it not been for the majority of their citizens’ shared fear of NATO and unipolar occupation. The New Cold War has finally given the region a viable and presentable alternative to Euro-Atlanticism through a rejuvenated Russia that’s eager to expand its strategic partnerships, especially in areas of similar civilizational experience like the Central Balkans.

Military-Political Threat Analysis:

The Central Balkans, if they can succeed in strategically reintegrating under Russian support, could become an influential geopolitical force in Europe, but alas, it would come with certain predestined geopolitical enemies. First of all, this would be St. Stephen’s Space, and the tension between the two rival groups is already playing out over the refugee crisis. Hungary has fenced off Serbia, with Croatia planning to follow its former imperial hegemon in the near future, the effect of which is to pursue a coordinated anti-Serbian policy along the country’s northern border. Taking it a step further, Hungary, especially under a Vona Presidency, could become wildly assertive in promoting what it says to be the interests of its ethnic diaspora, which in this instance would be a Budapest-driven demand for autonomy in Vojvodina. Croatia could also use the influence it has over certain political forces in Sarajevo to agitate for a revision of the Dayton Accords in order to raise tensions with Republika Srpska right around the same time, in yet another coordinated attempt of Budapest-Zagreb to throw the Central Balkans off balance.

Looking eastward, the Black Sea Bloc isn’t expected to jump into the fray, but it could take certain moves to increase border tensions against Serbia and Macedonia. This is very probable in the case of Bulgaria, which as previously explained, has staked a large part of its political and cultural identity on de-facto irredentism against Macedonia. What is most troubling from the southern sector, however, isn’t Bulgaria (as threatening as it may become), but Albania, since its transnational ethnic community in the occupied Serbian Province of Kosovo and Northwestern Macedonia can be activated to assist in asymmetrical warfare operations against the Central Balkans. Furthermore, this bloc is remarkably vulnerable to attacks by any dissatisfied “stay-behind” ‘refugees’ that might get armed by the KLA or any other yet-to-be-named Albanian-affiliated terrorist organizations. Another threat comes from the Color Revolution that the US is planning in Macedonia, and if Serbia continues with its pro-Russian orientation, then it will also be victimized yet again as well. All of these factors combine to make the Central Balkans the most destabilization-prone region in Europe, and it’s all due to the US and its proxy allies’ connivances against it in trying to exterminate the last vestiges of multipolarity on the continent.

“The Best Laid Schemes Of Mice And Men”

494b824614b31As the saying goes, “the best laid schemes of mice and men often go awry”, and the Intermarum is no exception in this regard. Aside from any unpredictable results that a possible Balkan War might bring in offsetting the utility and cohesiveness of the Intermarum as an anti-Russian geopolitical instrument, there are three other possible scenarios that could play out as well, and they’re all related to the space’s “squeaky hinges”:

Squeaky Hinges:

There are three geopolitical ‘hinges’ in the Intermarum that might not ‘behave’ as they are expected to, which could create some unforetold problems for the foreign decision makers tasked with bringing them to heel. To start off, this geopolitical category is composed of states that aren’t pivots in their own right, but whose movement one way or another has a significant impact on the nearby pivot state. Using this understanding, one can see that the concept isn’t limited to the Intermarum, but for the sake of the article’s scope, it’s being limited to that space. The three hinges under study are Lithuania, Slovakia, and Moldova, and their unpredictable precisely because there’s no guarantee that they’ll accept being placed in a position of servitude vis-à-vis their envisioned geopolitical ‘master’……More Here

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