Nothing will give them relief – Even El Niño won’t end state’s drought

Greetings,

It has become so intense that they don’t see any relief coming to California and the West Coast. The judgment has become that brutal. This will effect the entire nation and push food prices to new heights.

Even El Niño won’t end state’s drought

FILE: In this file photo from Thursday, July 17, 2014, Michael Korte walks on his brown lawn at his home in Glendora, Calif. Most Californians have heard by now that they should stop watering their lawns to save water in the drought. But there are smaller steps to take, too, from taking shorter showers and doing less laundry to restaurants skipping water at tables. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes) The Associated Press

“Some of the (computerized climate) models are showing warmer temperatures than we’ve ever seen” in the central Pacific, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.

During the past 35 years, California has been hit by two big El Niños: one in 1982-83 and the other in 1997-98. They produced some of the wettest years, statewide, in California history. San Diego recorded 18.26 inches of rain in 1982-83, then 17.78 inches in 1997-98. Normal is 10.34 inches.

(Each rainfall year runs from July 1 to June 30.)

In late 1982, sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific climbed to 2.2 degrees Celsius above normal. In late 1997, those temps rose to 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal.

Now, some climate models project those waters will be 3 degrees warmer than normal in the coming months. If that plays out, the effects on California could be enormous.

The “if” is a big one.

“The setup looks promising, but I would be somewhat reserved about going way overboard,” said Dan Cayan, a climatologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego. “Last early summer, we were pretty enthusiastic about (prospects for an El Niño) this year, and that turned out to be pretty ho-hum.”

On the other hand, Cayan recalls what happened before the big El Niño of 1982-83. Climate models were predicting water temperatures that climatologists had never seen before, so they discounted the projections.

After the El Niño ended, the scientists re-examined the models’ early output and found it to be pretty accurate.

Not all of the forecast models today are predicting a “super El Niño,” as some climate experts are calling it.

In addition, Halpert said spring is a time of high volatility in the Pacific, which makes it hard to put too much faith in long-range weather forecasting. He said the Climate Prediction Center is fairly certain there will be an El Niño of some kind next winter, but the forecasters will wait another month or so before discussing its potential strength.

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, agrees that a cautious approach is warranted.

“El Niños can be elusive. Now you see ’em, now you don’t,” he said…..More Here

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