News Analysis: Iran likely to intervene if Western powers attack Syria

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   News Analysis: Iran likely to intervene if Western powers attack Syria

 

by Xinhua writers Yang Dingdu, He Guanghai

TEHRAN,  (Xinhua) — Iran will intervene if the West pushes for regime change in Syria amid mounting calls for military intervention after alleged use of chemical weapons in the battered Arab country, analysts here say.

Iran’s new government does not want direct confrontations with the West over Syria, with President Hassan Rouhani having said ” the world’s people, particularly the people in the Middle East, are not prepared for a new war.”

But Tehran may well be forced into the conflict, Sadeq Zibakalam, a professor on politics from Tehran University, told Xinhua on Thursday.

Iran will become involved directly in Syria when it finds that world and regional powers like the United States, Britain and Saudi Arabia are already there attacking Bashar al-Assad. “In such a scenario, Iran will do whatever it takes to keep Assad in power, ” said the expert.

IRAN’S OPTIONS

In light of possible attack by the West, Iranian officials have warned of its regional plight in which the Islamic republic cannot stay aloof as a disinterested spectator.

In his latest comment on Syria, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of “disastrous” consequences of a possible U.S. attack on Syria, saying that the military intervention will be a ” catastrophe” for the region.

The Middle East is like a “powder keg” and its future will be unpredictable if something happens, he said.

Iranians are warning the West: “Don’t think that if you attack Syria, it will remain limited to Syria. It’s just like fire. You cannot control it. It will engulf other areas as well,” said Zibakalam.

Iran will consider “U.S. military bases wherever in the region as a legitimate target,” he said.

In addition to indirect involvement in the Syrian crisis with actions targeting Western interest in the Middle East, Iran may have to confront the West in battlefield as well. “If it comes to the question of survival of Assad, it is possible that Iran will send troops to keep him in power. That would mean direct confrontation between Iran and the West,” he said.

STRATEGIC ALLY

Iran will definitely offer support, as it has done in the past, to the Syrian government since the Arab state is Iran’s “strategic ally” in the region, said Zibakalam.

Earlier in August, Rouhani reiterated Iran’s loyalty to the amicable ties with Syria, saying that nothing will change the two countries’ close alliance and no power could shake the strategic ties of the two countries.

Iran’s close relations with Syria dated back to the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 and have been steady since then. During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), Syria was the only Arab state that provided Iran with political, moral and military support.

Other than historical ties, Iran also relies heavily on Syria to carry out its strategies in the region.

Syria is a key logistic route bridging Iran’s support with anti- American and anti-Western forces in the region, such as Hezbollah, Hamas and other Palestinian groups, Zibakalam said. “If the Syrian regime is no longer there, it would be tantamount to the collapse of Iranian strategic policies in the middle east.”

As part of Iran’s strategic regional policy to contain Israel, senior Iranian officials have urged Syria as the “resistance front ” to withstand Israeli pressures.

Referring to Israel’s raid on a Syrian research center earlier this year, Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari said “The Zionist regime (of Israel) can only be dealt with through resistance and retaliation, ” calling on Syria to resist Israel’s pressures.

IMPACT ON NUCLEAR NEGOTIATION

However, the support of Iran for Damascus at this crucial stage and the possible involvement of the new Iranian government in the conflict in Syria will lead to some consequences which are not in Terhan’s favor.

After Iran’s June 14 presidential election in which Rouhani won a landslide victory against hardline conservative rivals, hopes grew among Iranians that many hardships in their lives might be amended by easing Western sanctions with possible breakthroughs in the country’s nuclear issue.

Rouhani has pledged to break the deadlock of the nuclear talks in “serious” negotiations with the P5+1 (five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany). But he has fallen into a dilemma where Iran’s intertwined fate with Syria prevents him from taking a softer stance for a leeway to mend ties with the West.

About the impact of possible Western military intervention in Syrian on the prospect of the nuclear negotiations, Zibakalam said “It will definitely ruin the possibility of any breakthrough in the P5+1 talks.”

Iran and the P5+1 have shown willingness for the imminent resumption of nuclear talks which have born no results over the past years. The last round of negotiations was held in Almaty of Kazakhstan on April 6 with no practical results achieved.

Also, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Wednesday that new round of talks between Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog has been set for Sept. 27 in the hope that, under the new Iranian administration, some progress will be reached.

The possibility of an escalation of the Syrian crisis emerges exactly at a time when Rouhani is trying to mend fences with the West. If the crisis stands and worsens, Rouhani’s position will be weakened as he will be forced to replace his nice face to the West with a radical stance.

“The crisis comes at a very bad time for Rouhani,” Zibakalam said.

  Source: Xinhua

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