US Gambling on the Islamic State to Undermine China and Russia’s Position in Africa
Africa plays a big part in the global ambitions of the Islamic State* and its mentors. Speculating where the core of the Islamic State previously in Syria has disappeared to, Egyptian president el-Sisi has repeatedly expressed fears that Africa will be the terrorist group’s next target beginning with Egypt, the most densely-populated Arab country (around 95 million people), and neighbouring Libya, a country rich in oil but currently divided. And the relentless terrorist attacks on Egyptian soil and the Islamic State’s growing area of control on Libya’s southern coast, in Sirte, seem to confirm these fears.
Many experts believe that the Islamic State is assembling its forces to launch major offensives in Libya and Egypt in the near future, the main aim of which is to establish a “new empire” to make up for the extremists’ losses in Iraq and Syria. A statement by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is being circulated on the internet calling for Islamic State militants to gather in southern Libya, from where an offensive will be launched on the entire continent.
It would be impossible for the Islamic State to redeploy such large forces without the knowledge, or rather the assistance, of the Pentagon. If it was possible to actively use the Islamic State against Bashar al-Assad, then why not against Libya’s “strongman” Field Marshall Haftar or Egypt’s “obstinate” president el-Sisi? In some ways, Libya is an even better target for the US than Syria: the country has considerably more oil but will probably put up less resistance.
The main reason why the Islamic State is being pushed towards Africa lies in America’s geopolitical calculations. In recent years, the US has lost its position there so quickly that it is going to take extraordinary measures to get it back.
The most dominant power on the African continent is now an increasingly confident China. The annual volume of trade between China and Africa is around $400 billion, almost four times more than between the US and Africa (around $100 billion). In Africa, China is an absolute leader in terms of both investment and aid. At the end of 2015, China’s leader Xi Jinping stated that the country was ready to provide Africa with an additional $60 billion for various projects.
Beijing has also been politically and militarily active in Africa. In 2005, around 600 Chinese peacekeepers were sent to Liberia. Chinese “Blue Helmets” have carried out peacekeeping operations in Western Sahara, Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire, the Congo, Mali, and South Sudan. In Chad, the Chinese helped opponents of the country’s president, Idriss Déby, who had rashly recognised Taiwan.
And on 1 August 2017, China officially opened its first overseas military base in the Republic of Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. Nearby is Camp Lemonnier, America’s largest military base in Africa (home to around 4,000 personnel). Washington pays $63 million a year to maintain Camp Lemonnier, while the Chinese are going to give each of its military facilities in Djibouti $100 million a year. It is no wonder that the Djibouti authorities ignored America’s diplomatic démarches asking them not to allow China to open its base…..more