Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.

While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January, current job losses still average more than the per month rate of 150,000 during the last recession.

Also, remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession.

So we can expect that job losses will continue until the end of 2010 at the earliest. In other words, if you are unemployed and looking for work and just waiting for the economy to turn the corner, you had better hunker down. All the economic numbers suggest this will take a while. The jobs just are not coming back.

There’s really just one hope for our leaders to turn things around: a bold prescription that increases the fiscal stimulus with another round of labor-intensive, shovel-ready infrastructure projects, helps fiscally strapped state and local governments and provides a temporary tax credit to the private sector to hire more workers. Helping the unemployed just by extending unemployment benefits is necessary not sufficient; it leads to persistent unemployment rather than job creation.

The long-term picture for workers and families is even worse than current job loss numbers alone would suggest. Now as a way of sharing the pain, many firms are telling their workers to cut hours, take furloughs and accept lower wages. Specifically, that fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost.

This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs. Recent studies suggest that a quarter of U.S. jobs are fully out-sourceable over time to other countries.

Other measures tell the same ugly story: The average length of unemployment is at an all time high; the ratio of job applicants to vacancies is 6 to 1; initial claims are down but continued claims are very high and now millions of unemployed are resorting to the exceptional extended unemployment benefits programs and are staying in them longer.

Based on my best judgment, it is most likely that the unemployment rate will peak close to 11% and will remain at a very high level for two years or more.

The weakness in labor markets and the sharp fall in labor income ensure a weak recovery of private consumption and an anemic recovery of the economy, and increases the risk of a double dip recession.

As a result of these terribly weak labor markets, we can expect weak recovery of consumption and economic growth; larger budget deficits; greater delinquencies in residential and commercial real estate and greater fall in home and commercial real estate prices; greater losses for banks and financial institutions on residential and commercial real estate mortgages, and in credit cards, auto loans and student loans and thus a greater rate of failures of banks; and greater protectionist pressures.

The damage will be extensive and severe unless bold policy action is undertaken now.

Roubini is professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

Top economic prognosticator says job seekers

must face grim economic facts

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2009/11/15/2009-11-15_the_worst_is_yet_to_come_unemployed_americans_should_hunker_down_for_more_job_lo.html#ixzz0XFSntMQV ”

  NOW ELIJAH’S WORDS;”

The Fall of America

CHAPTER 62

The Worst is Yet To Come

1 According to radio and television, and according to individual conversation — and according to conversation heard between government officials concerning their problem of trying to find a way to peace for their people — and a way to find stoppage of the fall of their money market and unemployment — and a stoppage to the revolutions between the dissatisfied and the dissatisfied — and to find a way to be able to eat — and to keep the hungry eating from his own labor — pacification is offered but it does not satisfy.

2 With nations rejecting peace offers and nations laughing and making mock of you for ever seeking peace and friendship — as it is written, ‘Peace is desired more than fine gold!’

3 Now to see all of these things coming to pass — things that we did not know that we would see. We did not know that we would see such a Goliath — such a giant — falling.

4 Goliath! who has defied the nations of the earth t come out and fight with them, as Goliath did before Israel. Now, nations make mock of the great giant of the earth, America.

5 The sword within and the sword without! Trouble seems to have no end. And with tens of millions of free Black slaves crying for freedom, justice and equality from the white slave-master — and the white slave-master wanting to deceive the Black slave and make promises that the white slave-master does not intend to fulfill to his free Black slave —

6 And with the free Black slave thinking that he will eat some crumbs of freedom, justice and equality from his white slave-master — the free Black slave will be gravely deceived!

7 The white slave-master cannot free himself from his enemies, not to think of the white slave-master freeing himself from the consequences of the dissatisfied world.

8 So, with “The Worst Yet To Come,” I say to you my Black brothers and my Black sisters fly to Allah; and come follow me! There are some intelligent white people who know and who will bear witness with me that the worst is yet to come!

9 Look at Texas! There is a warden at a certain prison-house who sends the believers (Muslims) to the Temple so that they may listen to the truth which is their salvation today; to accept the truth.

10 I think that this is a very wise warden. It is like Ahab’s general (Bible). The general knew that Ahab was wrong and that Elijah was right.

11 Ahab’s general took four hundred of Elijah’s followers and hid and fed them with the bread of Ahab in order to save them from hunger while they were in captivity to Ahab.

12 I say to you leaders, remember the above-said of this writing, that “The Worse Is Yet To Come!” As the Bible teaches us that “a time would come that had never come before,” and that those who understood — ‘their hearts would be failing them with fear and their eyes would go away in their holes” for looking at the things that they saw coming on their people — the trouble! the destruction! and the plagues!

13 Look at the earthquakes that are taking place. Those earthquakes are on their way here. We are feeling the earth shaking under our feet across the country!

14 As the Holy Qur’an prophesies to us, “you will hear it coming from distant places with vehement raging and roaring!”

15 America is best all around now with troubles and destructions which have happened. America thought that she was immune to the troubles and destructions which are going on in other nations.

16 Now the same trouble and destruction that you read of as happening in other countries and to other nations — these same troubles and destruction, with their evil and gruesome sound, are knocking on the door of America! “