It’s about time for a Sino-Russia alliance

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It’s about time for a Sino-Russia alliance

A helicopter opens the Russian national flag at the opening ceremony of the International Aviation Exhibition in Moscow, Aug. 2013. (File photo/CNS)

The Malaysia Airlines MH17 fiasco has created perhaps the perfect moment for China to take sides with Russia and form an alliance long in the making. The questions the catastrophe raises — was it done by pro-Russia rebels, as claimed by Western media, or hit by the Ukraine government forces? is it possible to reach a final conclusion acceptable by all sides? — has turned the gears towards such a conclusion.

First, we have to understand the trend and result of Russia’s gambling with western countries. It is clear that the United States and Europe all have anticipated wresting Ukraine’s future out of Russia’s hands and have prepared to adopt a series of sanctions and even create pressure by conducting military exercises. But one thing is clear: Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and Russia has changed its nuclear protocol of no-first use. Faced with such a prospect, the US and Europe’s military activities have turned into mere posturing.

China should be officially insisting on the ceasefire resolutions reached in Geneva between the US, Russia, Ukraine and the European Union, and respect the free choices of Ukraine.

But if Ukraine eventually joins NATO, then military and trade cooperation between China and Ukraine will definitely suffer a blow. Even if China remains neutral in the Ukraine crisis or supports the position of the West, the US Asia Pivot strategy will not change. A prompt decision might as well be made.

Supporting Russia is not just on the basis of political friendship, but should engender mutual benefits through private exchanges. For example, Russia should publicly support China’s policy to set up the East China Sea ADIZ and China’s sovereignty over the Diaoyu islands.

Frankly speaking, the real target of the US strategy in the Asia-Pacific is either Russia or China, with the Ukraine incident just an episode. However, even inside the US government it seems its leaders are not certain which is its primary target. The indecision has made it difficult for China and Russia to choose whether they should forge an alliance or not.

The US ambiguity probably aims to dispel the intention of China and Russia to forge an alliance. Russian president Vladimir Putin recently denied forging a Sino-Russia alliance — a move probably seen as a mark of US diplomatic efforts.

Putin’s public denial may not be his ultimate strategy. Based on the protection of the nation’s security benefits, China’s changing of its inherent policy to forego an alliance will soon be an inevitable move. The government can test responses from all sides through media coverage.

(Qiu is a political commentator in China. Translated by Want China Times)

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