Warning Signs Abound for ‘Big One’ Earthquake Along San Andreas Fault

By Alex Blumer

An earthquake more than 100 miles from Los Angeles might not seem like a big deal. However, a magnitude 8.2 earthquake is far from ordinary and there’s plenty of geological evidence of past occurrences in Southern California. These markers foreshadow grave consequences for a region that’s already on high alert for the next “Big One.”

That term commonly refers to an earthquake similar to the 1906 quake that devastated San Francisco. That had an estimated magnitude of 7.8, well above the baseline of 7 that scientists consider a major earthquake.

Seismologist Lucy Jones predicts that a San Andreas earthquake beginning at the Salton Sea could be as strong as an 8.2 if it got all the way to Paso Robles.

“We think Southern California is locked and loaded, that the stresses have really built up, and when things start unleashing, they could unleash for years,” U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Ned Field told Smithsonian.com in 2015.

(MORE: Massive Earthquake Will Hit San Andreas Fault Near Los Angeles in Next 30 Years)

A study published earlier this year concluded that the land on either side of the San Andreas fault has been pushing against the other at a rate of more than 1 inch per year since 1857.

“So you expect that amount of accumulation of energy will be released in the future in a large-magnitude rupture, somewhere along the San Andreas,” said USGS research geologist and study lead author Kate Scharer.

The last major earthquake near Los Angeles hit Fort Tejon in 1857 and registered a 7.9.

An 8.2 earthquake would produce far more energy than what was produced by the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima. But a bigger issue is that all of Southern California would be hit at once.

“With 300 miles of fault all going in the same earthquake, you then have everybody affected at the same time,” says Jones. “The San Andreas is the one that will produce the earthquake that’s going to cause damage in every city” in Southern California.

A project to install new seismic equipment across the West Coast as part of an earthquake early warning system is in danger of losing funding, according to President Trump’s proposed federal budget.

Some California cities, including Los Angeles and San Francisco, have boosted safety regulations for older buildings. San Francisco has expanded its system of underground cisterns to guarantee access to water in an emergency, while L.A. requires at-risk concrete buildings to be retrofitted.

Jones isn’t a fan of the minimum building standards for new construction in California, though. In comparison, Chile holds builders responsible if a new structure suffers earthquake damage within 10 years of completion……More Here