Bye-bye NATO…Spotlight: Turkey’s status in SCO may be upgraded: analysts

 

   Spotlight: Turkey’s status in SCO may be upgraded: analysts

Troubled by strained relations with its Western allies, Turkey is renewing efforts to knit closer ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an attempt which may well bear fruit this time, analysts believe.

“The chances for Turkey to be upgraded to the observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization seem to be stronger now than they were several months ago,” observed Yasar Yakis, a former Turkish foreign minister.

Turkey has been a dialogue partner to the organization since June 2012.

The debate on the SCO flared up lately in Turkey after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once again expressed the country’s aspiration to further ties with the SCO, saying “Why shouldn’t Turkey be in the Shanghai Five?”

He argued on his way back from Uzbekistan two weeks ago that the European Union had never wished Turkey well, adding that Turkey could act comfortably if it were a SCO member.

The SCO’s founding countries — China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan — were referred to as the Shanghai Five until Uzbekistan joined the club in 2001.

“Turkey may get observer status. In fact, full membership is not out of the question,” remarked Alev Kilic, director of the Ankara-based Center for Eurasian Studies (AVIM).

Back in 2013, Turkey failed in its attempt to convince SCO members to upgrade its status to an observer, reportedly due to a member nation’s opposition.

In contrast, the group was quick this time in responding positively to the Turkish president’s remarks.

Turkey has been selected to chair the organization’s Energy Club in 2017, becoming the first non-SCO country to hold the term presidency, the Turkish Ministry of Energy noted last week.

Turkey is deeply frustrated by its Western allies, in particular the EU and the United States, which it accuses of harboring criminals and providing weapons to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party outlawed by Ankara.

Turkey has also recently blasted the EU for unfair treatment in its membership talks as well as the European Parliament’s vote in favor of freezing the talks.

Erdogan’s talk of the SCO came after the Turkish government had been widely criticized, following a failed coup in July, by the EU for mass detentions, purge of tens of thousands of public servants, and crackdown on freedom of expression and the press.

A day after Erdogan’s remarks appeared in the Turkish press, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang stated that China “attaches importance to Turkey’s aspiration to further deepen its cooperation with the SCO.”

The Chinese side is willing to consult with other SCO members about the issue, Geng added.

Andrey Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, voiced his country’s support saying, “It is all up to Ankara” to decide.

Noting China and Kazakhstan also support Turkey’s aspiration, the ambassador told Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency that Russia was ready to cooperate with Turkey in every sense, on both bilateral and international levels.

“During the (SCO) membership process, we are not at all demanding from Turkey to refrain or halt its relations with the EU,” the Russian envoy was quoted as saying.

It is mainly due to the positive attitude of the major players in the SCO, namely Russia and China, that Turkey’s chance to obtain observer status is now higher, said Yakis, the former foreign minister.

According to AVIM’s Kilic, a former ambassador, increasing ties with the SCO is a step Turkey must take considering the much-discussed rise of Asia in the 21st century.

Turkey can assume the role of a center that could facilitate communication between the East and the West, he stated.

Erdogan’s latest remarks on Thursday regarding relations with the EU contained both hope and threat.

Turkey is ready to become a EU member immediately if the bloc would drop its “senseless” hostility toward it, Erdogan said, adding his country’s good will is dependent on whether Brussels would keep its earlier promises.

“We are not about to run after the EU… If the EU does its part, we will do ours,” he said.

As part of a refugee deal updated with the EU in March, Turkey is expecting visa-free travel to Europe for its citizens, six billion euros in aid for refugees being sheltered on its soil as well as expedited talks about its accession to the union.

Erdogan threatened last month that Turkey would take its EU membership bid to a referendum if the bloc would not move to keep its promises.

Turkey’s full membership in the SCO, meanwhile, is reportedly opposed by many in Turkey who believe such a move would quite adversely affect the country’s economy, among others.

They also argue the Turkish government’s aspiration to join the SCO is not compatible with its NATO membership and EU candidacy.

“I don’t think Turkey’s potential membership — even the current status of a dialogue partner — in the SCO is compatible with its membership in NATO or its aspirations to become a EU member. I don’t think Turkey would ever give up NATO or the EU,” remarked Haldun Solmazturk, director of the Ankara-based 21 Century Turkey Institute.

In Yakis’ view, Turkey may seek to obtain observer status within the SCO, but becoming a full member may be incompatible with its NATO membership.

Should the SCO take steps in the future toward an economic integration among member nations, Turkey would have to scrap its Customs Union agreement with the EU, he noted.

Following Erdogan’s remarks about Turkey’s SCO membership, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg responded with a mild warning.

“I am absolutely certain that Turkey will never do anything which undermines this collective defense, Article 5, and the unity in NATO,” the NATO chief was quoted as saying by the Hurriyet daily news on Nov. 23.

The Article 5 commits NATO members to protect each other in case of an armed attack on one.

Turkey has been a member of the NATO since 1952 and started talks with the EU for full membership in 2005.

In sharp contrast, AVIM’s Kilic argued that Turkey’s full membership in the SCO should be no obstacle for the country to maintain its current ties with the NATO and the EU.

“The SCO is in no way similar to either NATO or the EU,” he said, noting the SCO is not a defense organization in the strictest sense of the word.

Russian Ambassador Karlov’s statement to the Anadolu Agency, however, may be implying otherwise.

Russia would not demand Turkey to cool or cut off its relations with the EU while conducting accession talks with the SCO, the envoy was quoted as saying.

His words may be implying that Turkey would be required to break off ties with the EU in case it is admitted as a full SCO member following accession talks. There was no reference to the NATO in the ambassador’s remarks.

The SCO is a loose security organization established with focus on fighting radical Islamist threat, settling border problems among member nations and fighting drug trafficking in Central Asia. It also aims to further political and economic ties among members.

For Solmazturk, a former brigadier general in the Turkish Armed Forces, Turkey’s shift toward the SCO is temporary and actually an attempt by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to divert the public’s attention away from a plethora of problems at home and abroad while instilling new hope into its voters.

Turkey has been grappling with heavy economic, security and foreign policy problems.

Noting the AKP and Erdogan, who headed the party until being elected president in 2014, often present the West as a hostile force that is the source of the country’s problems, Solmazturk said, “You need to show an alternative (to the West) to satisfy the public.”

In an obvious message to the EU, Erdogan recently said, “We are currently continuing talks with the alternatives.”

Sait Yilmaz, a security and foreign policy analyst, does not think Turkey’s full membership in the SCO is either realistic or possible.

Although underlining the need, like all analysts who spoke to Xinhua, for Turkey to build stronger ties with countries in Eurasia, he said, “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is at the moment no alternative to either NATO or the EU.”

Yilmaz, who taught at various universities in Turkey, does not believe Turkey’s SCO initiative is sincere.

Turkey is simply trying to use the SCO card against the U.S. and the EU with which it is having problems, he said.

The Turkish efforts to build closer ties with the SCO dated back several years ago.

At a press conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in April 2013, Turkey’s then Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said his country saw its destiny linked to the SCO family.

Turkey apparently hoped to get an observer status at that time, but had to make do by signing a memorandum of understanding to finalize its status as a dialogue partner instead.

India and Pakistan are scheduled to become full SCO members next year. Iran, an observer, is seeking full membership as well.

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