GREETINGS,
LATELY WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE FALL OF AMERICA.TODAY THE FALL IS SO EVIDENT THAT A BLIND CHICKEN CAN SEE WHAT IS GOING ON.
NOW WE SEE THE POWER OF THE ENEMY BEING BROKEN BY GOD IN DESTROYING THE POWER OF THE WHITE MAN(BECAUSE IF WE ARE TRULY HONEST ,WE CAN SAY WITHOUT BEING CALLED RACIST BY CALLING AN ACE AN ACE AND SAYING THAT FOR THE LAST FEW THOUSAND YEARS THE WHITE RACE HAS BEEN THE RULER OF EARTH):HE(GOD IN PERSON) IS BREAKING HIS POWER TO MAINTAIN HIS SWAY OVER THE WHOLE WORLD.
—” INDEPENDENCE IS FINE, IF WE CAN KEEP AND MAINTAIN, INDEPENDENCE! BUT THERE IS A DARK CLOUD OF TROUBLE NOW SWINGING OVER THE COUNTRY OF AMERICA. THE DARK CLOUD MAKES HER ONCE FREEDOM OF THOUGHT AND ACTION BECOME INSTEAD, A FREEDOM OF DEATH, HELL AND DESTRUCTION!
IT IS AWFUL TO THINK OVER THE THINGS OF EVIL AND OF TROUBLE THAT ARE COMING UPON THE GLORIFIED NORTH AMERICA.”—-MESSENGER ELIJAH MUHAMMAD.
NOW LET US LOOK AT THE EVENTS HAPPENNING IN AMERICA;”Unprecedented U.S. corp. defaults seen for ’09
Tue Sep 29, 2009 11:43am EDT
Reporter’s Notebook
Restructuring
Private equity seeks creative distressed deals
Hilco’s Lipoff sees retail M&A pickup
Buoyant markets won’t fix all European firms
Opportunities in restructuring for private equity
More Restructuring … Email |Print | Reprints[-] Text [+] By Chelsea Emery and Emily Chasan
NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. corporate debt default rates are expected to hit “unprecedented” levels in 2009, even though the economy may be past the halfway mark of the U.S. recession, according to a forecast unveiled on Monday at the Reuters Restructuring Summit.
“There is a lot of pain left — we are only just half way through the 600 or so defaults in this cycle,” said Phil Kleweno, a partner at Bain’s corporate renewal group.
The forecast for the 2009 corporate default rate has risen to 12 percent to 14 percent, from a May forecast of 11 percent to 13 percent, according to Bain’s corporate default outlook. That suggests a total of about 180 to 210 companies could default on their debt this year.
“Our ongoing gross domestic product models are calling for a softer and longer climb out” of the economic decline than previously thought, said Kleweno.
Defaults will rise to 500 to 600 in the period between 2008 and 2011, up fivefold from the previous four-year period.
About 50 percent of defaults to-date have occurred in media, entertainment, automotive, chemicals and packaging industries. Going forward, there will be little relief for these sectors, he said.
“Consumer facing companies will continue to be at a higher risk of default,” said Kleweno.
DEBT EXCHANGES
More defaults will come from debt exchanges — meaning a company agreed with its bondholders to exchange old debt for new debt and equity — rather than from corporate bankruptcies, according to the study.
Distressed debt exchanges have occurred 40 percent more often than bankruptcies so far this year.
“People are being proactive,” said Kleweno. But he added that these amendments are only buying time. Rather than fixing the balance sheet, the amendments and lender negotiations tend to kick the can down the road and defer the problem, he said.
Though Bain expects the U.S. economy to bottom by the end of this year, corporate default pressures will remain as many companies continue to struggle to meet interest payments on heavy debt loads.
Bain expects the default rate in 2010 to be around 9 to 11 percent of debt issuing companies, or about 140 to 160 defaults.
WAVE OF MATURITIES
A spike of maturities beginning next year will cause the next wave of financial distress, according to the Bain study. Continued…—Unprecedented U.S. corp. defaults seen for ’09
Tue Sep 29, 2009 11:43am EDT
Reporter’s Notebook
Restructuring
Private equity seeks creative distressed deals
Hilco’s Lipoff sees retail M&A pickup
Buoyant markets won’t fix all European firms
Opportunities in restructuring for private equity
More Restructuring … Email |Print | Reprints[-] Text [+] Debt maturities are expected to rise 50 percent in 2010, from the year before, to $62 billion, then almost double again the following year, to $117 billion.
“As debt matures over the next couple of years, speculative grade refinancing will prove difficult,” according to the Bain study.
(Reporting by Emily Chasan and Chelsea Emery; Editing by Tim Dobbyn”———-2.)US Concerned About China’s Military Modernization
By Meredith Buel
Washington
29 September 2009
PLA’s type-03 long-range rocket guns
October 1, 2009 is the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, and the nation’s armed forces will take part in a massive program celebrating the Communist Party’s takeover in 1949. U.S. officials have carefully watched China’s efforts to modernize its military in recent years and are concerned it could pose a threat to America’s military power in the Pacific.
For more than a decade, China has been rapidly modernizing the People’s Liberation Army. And U.S. officials have expressed concern about how Beijing might use its expanding military power.
China’s Defense Minister, Liang Guanglie said recently that his country’s armed forces have made such huge strides in modernization that China’s fighter jets, tanks, warships and ballistic missiles equal or come close to matching the arsenals of Western nations.
The United States uses fleets of aircraft carriers, submarines, and other military assets to project power in the Pacific region.
Military analysts warn that China is trying to develop a new anti-ship ballistic missile that could threaten the U.S. Navy’s ability to stage operations close to China.
Roger Cliff focuses on Chinese military strategy at the RAND Corporation here in Washington.
“U.S. surface ships, including U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups that are within about 1,000 miles of China’s coast, are going to be vulnerable to attack by aircraft, surface ships and submarines,” said Roger Cliff.
While China’s relations with Taiwan have improved in recent months, Beijing continues to add to the hundreds of missiles it has pointed at the island.
But the Pentagon’s 2009 report on China’s military power ranks the country’s defense technology below that of the United States.
Retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Eric McVadon is Director of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis.
“It is a very difficult thing to imagine a two-pronged campaign – one against Taiwan and one against an intervening American force, of course, the world’s only superpower,” said Eric McVadon. “So China does not have the experience and the forces and so forth to expect to be able to do that very effectively. That would be truly a daunting challenge.”
China says its military budget for this year is $70 billion, although the U.S. Defense Department estimates it could be as high as $150 billion.
The Pentagon says China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance is limited. But top officials are concerned about Beijing’s increased focus on nuclear, space and cyber warfare.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates:
“Their investments in cyber- and anti-satellite warfare, anti-air and anti-ship weaponry, and ballistic missiles could threaten America’s primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific – in particular, our forward air bases and carrier strike groups,” said Secretary Gates.
But Beijing says China’s military modernization is purely defensive in nature and aimed at protecting the country’s security and interests.
Bernard Cole of the U.S. National Defense University.
“I really believe that the number one national security goal in China is simply keeping the Chinese Communist Party in power,” said Bernard Cole.
The United States and China recently renewed military-to-military cooperation, which, in the past, has involved U.S Navy ships visiting Chinese ports and meetings between officers.
The Commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Admiral Timothy Keating, says he would like to go a step further to include joint military exercises.
“I happen to believe that partnership is an essential element of stability throughout the Asia-Pacific region,” said Admiral Keating. “And a way of demonstrating that is to operate on a multilateral basis, with forces from the People’s Liberation Army, Navy and Air Force.”
Analysts also suggest the U.S. and Chinese militaries cooperate to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief during emergencies as a way to build trust and confidence between the two nations.
Eric McVadon of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis:
“For the moment, we have to hedge,” he said. “Both sides have to hedge because we are fearful that a conflict could arise. But the more that we cooperate and engage, maybe the less important it becomes to hedge. So that is my optimistic viewpoint for the future.”
U.S. defense officials have long expressed concerns about the lack of transparency in China’s military affairs.
In an attempt to better communicate its military intentions, China’s Defense Ministry recently launched its first Web site http://www.mod.gov.cn in Chinese and English that contains numerous links to military news, photographs and videos. “—–3.)”
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